2008年12月02日

ボーグルは一年半から二年はだめぽと判断

2009 Outlook: Vanguard's Bogle sees long recession - Forbes.com
Q: How long do you expect the U.S. recession to last?

A: I believe it will take longer than most experts believe to get through this. I'd say it will be a year and half to two years before we turn upward. The international economy is going to go through a similar phase.

Q: Where should we look for clues that the economy is rebounding?

A: In the U.S., the first signs will come when employment starts to tick up again, and when retail sales pick up. That could be as long as the next Christmas season. It's sure not going to happen this Christmas season.

今年のクリスマスプレゼントに景気回復はありません。でも、米国株式市場、および米国の行く末に関しては強気です。年齢と同じ割合だけ債券(米国債券)を持てというのは変わっていません。

Q: Does your index fund philosophy still hold up in this economy?

A: The index is the ultimate buy-and-hold, all-American business strategy. It is the gold standard; there is no way around it. Mathematically, indexing wins. And if the data don't show indexing wins, well then, the data are wrong.

データがインデックスファンドの勝利を示さないなら、そのデータは間違っている。なんという強気。ボーグルだとトータルストックマーケットインデックスファンドだと思いますが、バリューインデックスでも勝つる計算です。
posted by ことばもないひと at 13:26 | 日記